Dark Trump Takeover Scenario

Some say the stock market will crash if Trump steals the midterms. There are many ways he could do this. Prevent enough people from voting. Have ICE seize ballots. Have Republicans just order the counting stopped or refuse to certify election results. Surround the Capitol with tanks and put the lot of them in jail. Everyone is running through possible scenarios in their heads. (Admit it, you are.)

Bailout Bubbles

I keep hearing that this stock bubble persists because traders believe Trump will bail them out if the bubble pops. Go crazy because there’s less downside risk. There certainly is reason to believe this. Just look at what happened after the 2008 crash. Look at Silicon Valley Bank. Look at etc., etc., etc. Downside risk? What’s that? We don’t GOT no stinkin’ downside risk!

Oil Companies Know

Factor that kind of thinking into the “Trump Takeover” scenario. There could be a total corruption bailout! The corporations could finally be totally “unleashed.” ALL the money at the top and NONE of that stupid trickling down!

Oil companies know. Remember how Trump promised the oil companies they can have everything they want if they help him win. Trump won and the oil companies got Venezuela and a government that is fighting green energy & CO2 reduction rules every step of the way. Imagine what the corporations can achieve with no Congress or government departments at all to worry about.

A Dark Vision

So the other argument is at lease some think there’s the possibility that the market could go insane upwards if Trump “goes the full gestapo route.” It means the big guys at the top will get all the rest of (what’s let of) the loot. Maybe markets will believe that with all constraints removed there will be be real cheap labor and no more problems with oversight of anything — for those who can pay Trump enough. Because that’s how it works when the strongman runs things.

The Virginia Gerrymandering Ruling: Rules Are Rules

This post first appeared at Imagine Democracy – Imagining government of the people, by the people and for the people.

Virginia broke the rules. That’s all there is to it. Rules are rules.

Republican states can gerrymander to favor Republicans, Democratic states cannot gerrymander to favor Democrats. States can draw districts that exclude minority representation. States cannot draw districts that enable minority representation. Rules are rules.

It’s like “Stand Your Ground” gun laws. White people can stand their ground and shoot black people. Black people better not get near a gun. Rules are rules.

It’s like when I was a kid. All my neighbors were Black. I had to go to what was called the “white” school. It was a shiny new school some distance away. All my neighbors went to what was called the “black” school. It was built in the 1800s, run down, moldy, leaking roof, etc. Rules are rules. (Ann Arbor). Along came LBJ and Civil Rights and Democrats lost the South forever.

The South has risen again.

PS Also, women couldn’t get bank accounts, loans, managerial positions, and got paid 59 cents for each dollar men got paid for the same job, etc so expect that soon, too.

Rules are rules. 

How Did We Get Here?

Let’s just say the Iran situation calms down, Iran sets up the toll system and the US just … leaves. Then the world has to sit and wonder what Trump does next. It could be literally anything. Back to Greenland? Cuba? Canada? Take the UK?

How did this happen? The disppearance of rule of law, international law, norms … we are now all at the whim of one madman with incredible power. The entire world!

After WWII the world tried to set up some structures to prevent another catastrophe. The US set up the regulatory state to prevent another depression and make people’s lives better. It was all systematically dismantled, piece by piece, with the effort hidden behind a fog of propaganda called “free speech” and based on “making some money.” Now a few people have all of the power and most of the wealth.

Will the world recover and do better next time?

Corruption Leads To Corruption Leads To Today

Some time back I listened to Ezra Klein interviewing journalist Anand Giridharadas, The Infrastructure of Jeffrey Epstein’s Power, discussing how the networks Epstein set up worked. It was just so enlightening and I’m still thinking about it, seeing it everywhere…

Of course there were the people, like Trump, who were part of raping young girls, attending the parties, etc.

There were the people who did not engage in the worst but benefitted from the connections Epstein offered. They knew about the worst because he had already been convicted the first time, but they benefitted from the connections and that was what mattered to them.

Earlier than that there were people who saw it happening, knew about the girls and the parties and just thought boys will be boys and laughed. That’s what women and girls were for! It’s just the way it is.

There were lots of people who participated in letting Epstein off that first time. There was the entire crowd at the DOJ who stepped in and took over the prosecution and let him off easy and ordered everyone to keep quiet about it! There were the people who saw this happening and said nothing. This was how things were done and that’s the way it is and if you want your career you’ll keep your mouth shut. And so they kept their mouths shut.

An Entire System Of Corruption

After all, everyone knew that corporate executives and the very wealthy and certain politicians and powerful people like them were above the law. That’s the way it is and if you want to keep your career you’ll sign the NDA and keep your mouth shut.

This was just one part of an entire system of corruption and acceptance of and expectation of corruption built up over the years and it was of a part with the entire system of letting fraudsters and money-launderers and corporate criminals and an entire class of predators get away with harvesting the public for profit. No prosecutions of executives for anything, ever. Polluters. Tax dodgers. Bank executives who crashed the economy with fraud. “Lobbyists” who exist just to pay off politicians. Government regulators who keep their mouths shut and don’t make waves or rock the boat, then leave government and are given lucrative jobs or contracts or “speaking fees” thanking them for their service to the system of corruption.

A corrupt Supreme Court that has now legalized that system of bribery. Every day that all just got worse and worse until we have what we have now – a King and his family and the fascists around them raking in billions and billions.

The Dirty Hippies Who Refused To Participate In The Corrupt System

What stood out to me was there also were people who were repelled by it and wanted nothing to do with it and refused to benefit from the connections, favors & gifts and other things Epstein was dangling. They told associates to keep away from him and keep him away from anything they had to do with. Those are the ones the Trump admin is going after now because of that, prosecuting, etc. They are the “dirty hippies” who protest and show up at marches. They are the people who try to protect their neighbors from being taken away by masked thugs in unmarked vans.

So I recommend listening to:
The Infrastructure of Jeffrey Epstein’s Power
The journalist Anand Giridharadas examines the power and influence that Jeffrey Epstein brokered and that the latest batch of Epstein files puts on display.

Crypto Crash – The Serious Money Is Betting Trump Will Fail

The crypto crash means the “serious money people” are betting that Trump will fail.

When crypto started to become big money serious investors got involved. Serious investors do real analysis and usually know what they’re involved in. Sure, there are the dupes out there who think crypto has real “value.” But the real money in crypto comes from real investors putting millions into it and doing some degree of actual analysis of the risks.

Crypto’s only real use is crime. Its “use case” is ransomware, organized crime, bribery, fraud. With Trump there is the “rug-pull” fraud use case where you “issue” crypto coins, people place bets, and the issuer pulls the rug and cashes out. (Note – When you buy crypto you are giving crypto owners liquidity – backing the ability of criminals to cash out after their ransomware/bribery/whatever score.)

“Investing” in crypto is really just a bet on criming going up.

Crypto’s price went up and up because the real money made bets that Trump is going to be able to keep the crime racket going, even increasing it. They also believed the US government would step in and back it, buying up billions and maintaining its liquidity. A bet on crypto was a bet on Trump’s success at imposing a mafia state on the world.

So by pulling out and crashing the price, the “prediction market” of crypto – the big players – are betting that Trumpism isn’t going to succeed.

Trump Isn’t The Collapse, Trump Is A Consequence Of The Collapse

People say America and its democracy are being collapsed by Trump. I have come to believe that what we have been calling “late-stage capitalism” was a system that had already collapsed.

Trump isn’t the collapse, Trump is the consequence of the collapse.

The Rule of Law had departed some time ago. The Constitutional system was nonfunctional. The economic system was rigged. The political system benefited only the wealthy and their corporations. That was collapse.

Accountability had long ago disappeared. (A pardon for Nixon? What?) Executives at corporations are never prosecuted. Instead the company itself would be fined – as if companies are sentient entities that can make decisions and do things. White-collar criminals were rarely prosecuted. This is how Trump was able to even be on the scene in the first place to run for office, instead of imprisoned for sex crimes, money laundering, fraud, etc.

The collapse was how Reagan was able to get away with the deal with Iran, and the later Iran/Contra deal.

The collapse was how the Supreme Court was able to make Bush president.

The collapse was how the Iraq War happened.

The collapse was how the climate crisis came about in the first place, how the companies were allowed to continue to put carbon into the air after scientists warned us of the harm it was causing, and how the executives at the companies that caused it got rich instead of being prosecuted.

The collapse was how tax cuts for the rich & corporations, with budget cuts for things government does to make people’s lives better happened.

The collapse was how no bankers were prosecuted for fraud after the financial collapse, and Wall Street but not the public was bailed out.

Rule of Law and accountability had long since disappeared from the United States. That was the collapse.

This wasn’t “late stage capitalism,” it was collapse.

People called these things “late stage capitalism.” This wasn’t late stage capitalism at all. We were already living with the collapse of the Constitutional system, the collapse of Rule of Law, the collapse of accountability. It was corruption taking over. It had been happening for decades.

Trump is just a consequence of that collapse.

In 2017’s Democracy and Corruption I wrote about “democracy off the rails” and democracy “corroded,” not realizing Trump was only possible was because the collapse had already happened.

Trump didn’t just come out of nowhere. The road to Trump goes back a long way. Trump comes out of a steady and intentional undermining of rule of law, norms, equality, civility and democracy.

They say these things happen slowly, then all at once. The collapse was happening for decades, then all at once with Trump.

Why People Vote Against Their Interests

Short statement on why people vote for Trumps and Farages and the like:

Tobacco companies figured out how to convince people to kill themselves slowly and painfully, and to pay them for the privilege.

When the govt started warning of the harm they caused they took their techniques into politics.

Later, oil and coal companies took up the cause.

From Tobacco To Legal Bribery – How We Got Here

Public service is very different from the “private-sector.” It is about serving the public. (The clue is in the name.) People who go into public service do so with an expectation they will receive less pay but have a more secure position helping other people.

We have all been subject to decades of propaganda devoted to breaking down these understandings. Government is bad – all government. Government is inefficient and in the way of progress. People who work for the government are lazy and greedy and only out for themselves. Etc.

It really got going when the government tried to protect people from harm by tobacco companies. The companies developed ways to convince the public to let them keep doing what they were doing. They were convincing people to kill themselves – but also to pay these companies for the privilege of bringing them a slow, agonizing death. Other industries picked up these techniques.

Personal responsibility. Liberty to do what we want. Nanny state. Government interference.

The propaganda wasn’t enough; they also organized a political attack. Not a coincidence that a tobacco lawyer wrote the “Powell Memo,” launching the “Conservative Movement” and later, on the Supreme Court, “legalizing” bribery. (PLEASE please listen to the “Master Plan” podcast explaining how bribery became the way of business under the cover story “free speech.”)

Now we are living with the consequences of doing nothing about this “free speech.”

A Dark, Dark Vision: Emerging Putin/Xi/MBS/Trump Alliance

Reading about the Ukraine “peace” deal that followed the Trump/Putin phone call – Putin gets everything he wants, Trump gets 50% of Ukraine’s mineral rights – what I fear we are seeing is that a Trump/Putin/Xi/MBS alliance is a done deal. They avoid coming out and stating it because that would generate too much resistance before the US is completely consolidated.

But it looks like it’s a done deal. I think MAGA are rapidly dismantling the US ability to respond to the takeover that I fear is happening, and the ability for the US to continue to compete in the world in any way. Not even Trump’s collection of oligarchs, nor his “Christian Nation” partners really realize this yet. They will.

There is some time to head this off, but the people who can do something need to realize this is happening. If I’m right. Europe is responding like they think this is what is happening, calling an emergency summit to figure out what to do.

Long Knives Coming

Here is what I think could be coming for the people who think they’re in charge now. It is summed up with these two articles: (See also “Night of the long knives“.)

This is what Putin did with his oligarchs: How Putin Conquered Russia’s Oligarchy,

Putin offered the oligarchs a deal: bend to my authority, stay out of my way, and you can keep your mansions, superyachts, private jets, and multibillion-dollar corporations (corporations that, just a few years before, had been owned by the Russian government). In the coming years, the oligarchs who reneged on this deal and undermined Putin would be thrown into a Siberian prison or be forced into exile or die in suspicious circumstances. The loyalists who remained — and the new ones who got filthy rich during Putin’s long reign — became like ATM machines for the president and his allies.

If you didn’t go along with this you went to prison or out a window.

This is what MBS did with his oligarchs: ‘Night of the beating’: details emerge of Riyadh Ritz-Carlton purge,

The former detainees, many of whom were stripped of fortunes, portray a scene of torture and coercion, and of royal court advisers leading chaotic attempts to understand the investments behind the wealth of the kingdom’s most influential families, then seizing what they could find.

The accounts of what occurred in the Ritz, provided through an intermediary, are from some of the most senior Saudi business figures, who claim to have been beaten and intimidated by security officers, under the supervision of two ministers, both close confidantes of the man who ordered the purge, the crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman.

There is a bit of time to head this off, but people have to realize this may be what is happening.